n$L{Z. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. The forecast for water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell, issued on January 5, 2023, by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center, projects that the most probable (median) unregulated inflow volume in water year 2023 will be 9.5 maf (99 percent of average). Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. hbbd``b`$WX)! Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. %PDF-1.7
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Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. The forecast is changing daily and there are still a lot of variables, said Lisa Meiman, a spokeswoman for WAPA. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. It can store about five times the average annual flow. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. 15 Day Weather Forecast Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. The March 2023 releases are anticipated to fluctuate between a low of 5,276 cfs to a high of 9,641 cfs. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. 0
According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5
LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). endstream
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Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. The lake level began to rebound; only the 2008 image appeared to deviate from the trend toward rising water levels. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Lake Powell is currently 390.33 feet deep at the dam. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Last week, the Bureau of Reclamation announced extraordinary action to keep the water level at Powell from dropping too low, which could threaten hydropower production at Powells Glen Canyon Dam. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb
:qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? monthly forecasts become more accurate. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. In addition to daily scheduled fluctuations for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate to provide 40 megawatts (MW) of system regulation. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). swE{,,;o0U|+/ :u7j@;pGh00gr\j30sAD+ ON 9
Drop us a note at tips@coloradosun.com. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. 192 0 obj
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google_ad_type = "text_image"; The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Utahs Flaming Gorge, Colorados Blue Mesa and New Mexicos Navajo. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Reclamation will also ensure all appropriate consultation with Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico, other federal agencies, water users and non-governmental organizations with respect to implementation of these monthly and annual operations. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; hb```)," (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. 159 0 obj
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Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Water managers, who . An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. %%EOF
The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use google_color_link = "0000FF"; It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . But it is concerning. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.).
Lake Mead's water levels . If you have feedback on content, format, or publication frequency, please contact us. Shortages have been implemented by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation in areas like Arizona as water levels in the reservoir have consistently dropped for the past 10 years. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. Dry conditions and falling water levels were unmistakable in the image from April 13, 2003. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7
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The May report, released last week, is the final runoff prediction for the season. (2007). The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. CNN's Bill Weir has more. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. 04:12 - Source: CNN google_ad_type = "text_image"; Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. google_color_text = "000000"; Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. 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